It is widely held that UKIP’s performance in the recent European Elections is unlikely to be replicated on the same scale in the 2015 UK General Election and that Nigel Farage’s party will struggle to win not just an overall majority but a single seat in the House of Commons.
Conservative Euro-sceptics point out that David Cameron will go into the election pledged to hold an in/out referendum in 2017 if he wins an overall majority and that a vote for UKIP, by splitting the Euro-sceptic vote, may throw away the best chance in a generation for those who want Britain to leave the European Union to get their way. Cameron-sceptics argue the Prime Minister is actually pro-European and is offering the referendum out of terror of UKIP and will find a way to wriggle out if he wins in 2015.
No one, so far as I have seen, has suggested the obvious solution to the Euro-sceptic conundrum. UKIP could simply pledge that if they won an overall majority they would repeal the The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, call an immediate in/out referendum, negotiate the UK exit and then (or immediately in the event of a no vote) dissolve parliament. All Euro-sceptics could then safely vote UKIP in the knowledge that this would deliver a referendum while allowing them to return to their tradtional politial loyalties six months later. It is hard to imagine that, if they delivered, UKIP would not retain some presence in the House of Commons in the ensuing General Election.